Agua Dulce, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

395
FXUS66 KLOX 041631
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
931 AM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/926 AM.

Dry weather is on tap for the next 7 days at least. A warming
trend will begin today and will continue through late next week
with only a one day break on Monday. Well above normal temperatures
are very likely next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s
expected across the valleys. Heat advisories will be possible both
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...04/930 AM.

***UPDATE***

Nothing really to add from previous forecasts. Patchy stratus that
formed overnight after yesterday`s rains has dissipated and
expecting plenty of sunshine today and the next several days.
Temperatures are already trending up in most areas and highs today
should be about 5 degrees warmer at the coast and 5-10 degrees
warmer inland.

***From Previous Discussion***

The start to a strong warm up begins today. The upper low that
affected the area for the past few days will shift to the east and
will allow a ridge to slowly build in. Hgts over the next three
days rise from 552 dam ydy to 565 dam today then to 577 dam
Saturday and finally 580 dam on Sunday. The average 500mb hgt for
this time of year is 571 dam.

At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow from the north today
with weak onshore flow to the west. There will be a weak Santa Ana
Saturday with about 3 mb off offshore flow both from the east and
north. The offshore flow will continue on Sunday but will be about
a mb weaker than Saturday.

Aside from some low clouds this morning across western SBA county
skies will be mostly clear through the period.

There will be some northerly canyon winds this morning. NE Santa
Ana winds will develop on Saturday but will not reach advisory
levels. Even weaker NE winds will occur on Sunday.

Temperatures will be the main story both in the short and long
term. The combination of quickly rising hgts, offshore flow and
plenty of sunshine will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming both today
and Saturday with an additional 2 to 4 degrees for most areas on
Sunday. By Sunday all of the csts away form the beaches will be in
the 70s and the vlys in the lower to mid 80s. Today`s temps will
be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal but by Sunday max temps will be 2 to
4 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...04/313 AM.

Monday will be the only day where max temps cool. The ridge will
be knocked down as a trof moves through the PACNW and nrn CA. More
importantly the offshore flow will flip to onshore. Some marine
layer clouds will likely form across western SBA county. Most max
temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees. Max temps away from the cst will
remain above normal.

And then as Glen Frey sings: The Heat is on. Hgts will rise to 581
dam on Tue as a ridge begins to push up from the north. Hgts peak
at 584 dam on Wednesday before falling a dam or two Thursday.

At the sfc there will be weak onshore flow from the west but
about 3 mb of offshore flow from the north. Skies should be mostly
clear, but there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some morning low
clouds each morning esp over Srn LA county and western SBA county.

Look for 4 to 8 degrees of warming each day. This warming will
catapult max temps up into the 80s for most of the csts and the
90s for the vlys on Wednesday. There is a low but non zero chance
of some 100 degree readings in the western San Fernando Vly on
Wednesday. These temps are 12 to 18 degrees above normal. Onshore
flow increases on Thursday and this will bring some cooling to the
coasts but the inland areas will see max temps very close to
Wednesday very warm temps. Overnight lows will also be warming and
with warmer overnight lows combining with well above normal highs
there is a 30 percent chc of that heat products will be needed
for some vly areas.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1545Z.

At 1530Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 900 feet.
The top of the inversion was 1700 feet with a temperature of 12
degrees Celsius.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as CAVU conditions are
anticipated through the period. After 12Z, weak offshore flow will
generate some light turbulence and LLWS across the mountains and
foothills.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are
anticipated through the period. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...04/845 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Through tonight, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will
continue. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, a combination of SCA
level winds and seas are expected.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. SCA level winds will develop this afternoon and
continue through this evening, before diminishing. For Saturday
through Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas
are expected with the strongest winds occurring during the
afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 60-70%
chance of SCA level northwest winds across the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in sub-SCA level
conditions elsewhere. For Saturday morning, there is a 40-50%
chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Malibu.
From Saturday night through Tuesday, there is a 40-50% chance of
SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel (mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours) with
high confidence in sub-SCA level conditions elsewhere.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox